Curbing global heating at 1.5 degrees Celsius will avert runaway climate change but not mass suffering in developing nations, a consortium of 50 researchers warned.
A 22-year-old mother holds her child as she waits for high nutrition foods and medical consultations at Tawkal 2 Dinsoor camp for internally displaced persons in Baidoa, Somalia, on February 14, 2022, amid a drought engulfing the Horn of Africa. Yasuyoshi Chiba/ AFP
If exposing large swathes of humanity to "significant harm is to be avoided, the just boundary should be set at or below 1°C," the scientists said.These are sobering conclusions because greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels, and current policies are on track to see 2.7°C of warming by century's end.
Rockstrom is among the originators of the concept of "planetary boundaries"—red lines that must not be crossed. "The Earth system is in danger—many tipping elements are about to cross their tipping points," said co-author Dahe Qin, director of the Chinese Academy of Science's influential Academic Committee.
Rockstrom, head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and colleagues applied the same yardsticks to measure the limits for a "just" world in which human exposure to harm is minimized. The scientists have proposed the new thresholds as the "scientific backbone" of evolving sustainability standards for government and business.
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