10-Year Yield to Head Much Lower as Fed Gears Up for Cutting Rates in September

United States 10-Year News

10-Year Yield to Head Much Lower as Fed Gears Up for Cutting Rates in September
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Bonds Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 10-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com

vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this fair value estimate, but as expected in recent months .

The current average fair-value estimate via three models is 3.40% for June, which is in line with recent monthly estimates. That estimate is 91 basis points below the actual 10-year yield for last month. Although there are periods when the market premium spikes, those events tend to be relatively brief affairs that are followed by periods of normalization, as shown in the chart below.

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