Mike Clay gives his annual list of players he expects to find the end zone more often this season.
Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
From the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 151 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 151, 101 scored more touchdowns the next season. Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 13 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WRs
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 39 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 39, 32 scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least seven times the next season was less than half his expected total , based on his usage.
With the vacated targets in Buffalo, Dalton Kincaid is sure to find the end zone more often in 2024. We're back with another year of ESPN Fantasy Football and it's time to get started. Create a league with friends and family and draft before the start of the season!Kincaid ranked top-10 at tight end in targets, receptions and yardage as a rookie, but he was held to two TDs. He was certainly a bit unlucky , though a boost in work near the goal line will be important here as well .
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