A slew of elections show democratic systems under pressure
the world’s population, or some 4bn people, live in places that are holding elections this year . These polls will decide who governs over 70 countries. But together they also represent one of the biggest health assessments of democracy in history. For over a decade there have been fears that democracy as a political ideal is ailing, with governments betraying liberal values and authoritarianism becoming common.
What do we know so far? Nine countries have held, or suspended, elections. Finns were electing their new president as this article was published. Last week minnows Azerbaijan and El Salvador held polls, as did weighty Pakistan. Next is populous Indonesia. The votes will keep on coming. March will feature Russia’s presidential poll . After that there will probably be votes in vast India in April and then in the European Parliament in June, among others.
The third category involves indeterminate polls. We put Indonesia in this bucket: the vote is expected to be clean but the circumstances around the election suggest the country’s democratic character is strained. The outgoing president, Joko Widodo, is attempting to exert dynastic control after bending the constitution to make his son the running-mate of the likely victor,.
It is possible that these shifts favour strongmen and authoritarians, by allowing them to communicate without scrutiny. They also have the resources to manipulate private messaging groups by using armies of proxies and bots to spread fake information. Not all the signals so far in 2024 point that way, however. In both Senegal and Pakistan the authorities suspended the internet and telecoms services before scheduled polls, suggesting they were concerned about losing control of online speech.
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