Thinking of betting Patriots-Jets on 'Thursday Night Football'? Here's what you need to know to boost your chances.
This is a close-your-eyes-and-forget-you-made-this-bet-until-the-end-of-the-game selection, because Williams is a good player and the Patriots' offensive line rankshas a slightly better than average 6.6% sack rate -- and that's more important than the porous offensive line, given how much quarterbacks control their sack rates.
Also, of critical note, Williams' opportunities will be limited because the Patriots just don't pass that much: They have the 28th-highest designed pass rate . Sack forecasts for defensive tackles are just lower in general, too. My model makes the fair price here -220.Targets are earned for wide receivers, and therefore the rate at which a receiver is able to have the ball thrown his way is an indication of skill.
Similarly, Douglas had a regular over/under receiving line of over 40 six times last season. Now we're getting +250 on that number, which is what this bet is all about -- the value and the price. My alt receiving line model, which also likes his value at 30+ and 35+ receiving yards, just a little bit less, prices this one at +147.Underdogs of at least 6 points are 8-0 ATS this season, the best mark through two weeks since the AFL/NFL merger .
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