75% of enterprise coders will use AI helpers by 2028. We didn't say productively

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75% of enterprise coders will use AI helpers by 2028. We didn't say productively
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Dev teams must beware inflated expectations of tech leadership, Gartner warns

Global tech research company Gartner estimates that by 2028, 75 percent of enterprise software engineers will use AI code assistants, up from less than 10 percent in early 2023.

He said vendors selling AI-assisted coding tools were claiming they could increase coder productivity by as much as 50 percent, while a third of CIOs and technology leaders thought AI code generation might be a"game changer" for their software development efforts. But looking more closely at the vendors' claims reveals that the benefits of AI-powered coding tools can be confined to quite narrow tasks. For example, one study relied on an A-B style experiment where a team writing a web server in JavaScript was pitted against another that also employed AI coding tools. Writing a boilerplate for Python was another common comparison task, he said.

"There are a whole variety of tasks from planning, design, research, and actual code generation and development … then a lot of testing and verification, and then deployment, configuration, and monitoring. Even if you're getting 50 percent faster task completion , that's only going to be 50 percent of 20 percent. So that means only 10 percent greater improvement in overall cycle time," he said.

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