The conclusion of the new report is hardly cheering
showed that the consequences of the disruptions to the global climate system are also worse than expected, and evaluated how much humans and the natural world could adapt to them.
The new report’s conclusions are stark. To have a 50% chance of avoiding more than 1.5°C of warming throughout the 21st century global carbon emissions will have to reach net zero in the early 2050s. To have a 50% chance of keeping warming below 2°C, global carbon emissions must reach net-zero by the early 2070s. For both, emissions of all greenhouse gases must peak by 2025.
Pursuing 1.5°C means that global use of coal must decline by 95% by 2050. Oil use must drop by 60% and gas by 45% over the same period. The decreases needed to limit warming below 2°C are not much lower. Under all these scenarios, there is no room for new fossil-fuel projects, and most existing ones will have to be wound down.
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