A verdict, not a forecast

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A verdict, not a forecast
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The crystal balls of election fortunetellers are not correct in their predictions all the time. In the United States, where poll forecasting began and is institutionalized, there were election forecasts which dismally failed.

POLL surveys have been ubiquitous features in the electoral landscape after the first was introduced during the 1824 US presidential race among Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay. The survey which was conducted by the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian showed Jackson leading Adams.

During the election period, any person, natural as well as juridical, candidate or organization who publishes a survey must likewise publish the following information:' The name of the person, candidate, party or organization who commissioned or paid for the survey;' The name of the person, polling firm or survey organization who conducted the survey;' The period during which the survey was conducted, the methodology used, including the number of individual respondents and the areas...

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