A new book warns America of the peril of “peak China” and conflict over Taiwan
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskA new book by two American geostrategists argues that the acute peril is now. In “Danger Zone: the Coming Conflict with China”, Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University and Michael Beckley of Tufts University argue that the world’s giants are engaged in a decade-long sprint, not a “hundred-year marathon”, as the title of another book puts it. China is about to have “a hard fall” or may already be in decline, they argue.
Both elements of the thesis—that China is peaking and that war is imminent—are contested by other analysts. Yet it captures something of the zeitgeist in Washington. Experts debate whether China’s slowdown means it has hit the “middle-income trap” . They also fret about growing hostility between America and China, andThe analysis of China’s intentions matters because it affects American policy.
President Joe Biden regards China as the greatest threat to America’s primacy, but for now seems to treat it principally as an economic and political challenge. His defence-budget request for the coming fiscal year implies the military threat will be most acute only in the 2030s. It seeks a below-inflation increase, and invests heavily in research and development for future weapons.
The Indo-Pacific Command’s list of unfunded priorities runs to $1.5bn. The largest sums would boost its ability to protect satellites; buy more long-range anti-ship missiles; and enable “campaigning”, which involves networks to share information with allies and facilities to test new warfighting concepts. Congress is likely to accept much of this.
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