Aaron Schatz on why DVOA projects the Seattle Seahawks to be in playoff hunt

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Aaron Schatz on why DVOA projects the Seattle Seahawks to be in playoff hunt
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The big area of improvement for Seattle? Defense.

Will the Seattle Seahawks return to the playoffs in their first year under head coach Mike Macdonald? Based on advanced metrics, the answer is about 50-50. Earlier this month, Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2024 was released, and in the annual DVOA preseason projections, the Seahawks have a playoff probability of 48.2%, which is a little higher than the previous season when they did miss out. Their average win total would be about 9 wins, mimicking the previous two years under Geno Smith.

While Howell was pressed into throwing way more than preferred, his 9.6% sack rate was one of the highest despite the Commanders having a middling pass blocking unit. Can he change his fortunes around in Seattle? “Sack rate is hard to change,” Schatz said. “It’s one of the stickiest stats from college to the NFL, that’s one of the things we’ve discovered in the last couple of years. It’s hard to change in the NFL. I think he can be a reasonable backup, but he was pretty bad last year.

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