Argentines have not given up on him either
very satisfied,” declared President Javier Milei of Argentina on local radio, after inflation in February fell more than expected to 13%. That, however, is the monthly figure. Over the past year it has added up to 276%—the highest in the world. Inflation of just 8% annually has rattled politics in richer countries. That Mr Milei, with some justification, saw fit to celebrate 13% monthly inflation shows what an utter economic mess he inherited, and how much he has left to do to fix it.
Start with his economic successes. To show there will be no more money-printing, Mr Milei is obsessed with achieving a budget surplus, meaning the government taxes more than it spends. He says he will achieve a surplus this year of 2% of, a huge change from a 3% deficit last year. In both January and February the government achieved monthly surpluses, the first in over a decade.
Still, Mr Milei’s first 100 days are marked by serious problems. Beyond the pain, the economic plan is riddled with uncertainties. One risk is the exchange rate. Trying to slow inflation, the government is devaluing the peso by 2% each month. Yet with monthly inflation much higher than 2% that is probably less than what is necessary. Alas, a faster crawl or sudden sharp devaluation would spark more inflation.
The politics have been rockiest. Mr Milei is still popular, but his coalition has no governors and just 15% of seats in the lower house. A gargantuan omnibus bill with 664 articles that he sent to Congress in late December was picked apart. Eventually he withdrew it, a striking defeat. Lack of prioritisation also hurt. Deregulating fishing permits and closing the national theatre institute are irrelevant next to pension reform.
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