President Yoon Suk-yeol’s political future is almost certainly dead, whether or not he is impeached.
A South Korea flag flies above a sign that reads “the prosecution’s dictatorship” as protesters take part in a candlelight rally calling for the ouster of President Yoon Suk-yeol at the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 5, 2024.
Impeaching a President in South Korea requires the assent of two-thirds of the 300-member National Assembly, followed by two-thirds of the nine-member Constitutional Court. Whether or not it happens, largely comes down to politics, as it would require some lawmakers to cross party lines.
Of the 300 current National Assembly members, 101 could block an impeachment, and Yoon’s People Power Party has 108. But 18 of those joined the majority in the 190-0 vote to overturn the martial law declaration earlier this week. And party leader Han Dong-hoon was among Yoon’s critics, calling the martial law declaration, says Seoul National University’s Kang, the People Power Party “will have to calculate the political situation and election prospects after that.
Dongseo University’s O’Malley suggests Yoon’s political misfortune doesn’t necessarily guarantee a shoo-in for the Democratic Party. “Both parties are seen as two of the most untrustworthy institutions in the country,” he says. Yoon, in his speech calling for martial law, alluded to opposition lawmakers, who have pursued impeachments of a number of government officials in recent months, as “anti-state forces” who have “paralyzed” state affairs.
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