Michael Garrett is the Sir Bernard Lovell chair of Astrophysics and Director of Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, University of Manchester with a strong interest in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Garrett is also the chair of the International Academy of Astronautics SETI Permanent Committee (SETI PC).
has progressed at an astounding pace over the last few years. Some scientists are now looking towards the development of — a form of AI that would not only surpass human intelligence but would not be bound by the learning speeds of humans.
I believe the emergence of ASI could be such a filter. AI's rapid advancement, potentially leading to ASI, may intersect with a critical phase in a civilization's development – the transition from a single-planet species to a This is where many civilizations could falter, with AI making much more rapid progress than our ability either to control it or sustainably explore and populate our Solar System.
In this scenario, I estimate the typical longevity of a technological civilization might be less than 100 years. That's roughly the time between being able to receive and broadcast signals between the stars , and the estimated emergence of ASI on Earth. This is alarmingly short when set against the cosmic timescale of billions of years.
Humanity is at a crucial point in its technological trajectory. Our actions now could determine whether we become an enduring interstellar civilization, or succumb to the challenges posed by our own creations.
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