Aluminum prices broke out of their sideways trend last month with strong upside price action, fueled by China easing its zero-covid policies
broke out of their sideways trend last month with strong upside price action. Prices rallied during the first half of November, followed by a modest retracement before they continued upward. The End of zero-COVID Sees Prices Reverse
Markets appeared quick to price in the return of Chinese demand, though much of this is speculative. Historically, China consumes around half of all commodities. Unbridling its consumers and putting an end to the havoc-wreaking disruptions of lockdowns could cause demand to increase. To what extent and at what pace Chinese demand will return remains unknown, however.China remains plagued by both immediate and long-term issues.
Aside from aluminum, China’s reopening will also mean the return of its energy demand. This could trigger a forthcoming reversal for WTI crude oil prices, which have largely remained in descent since June. Up to this point, the energy crisis has centered on Europe and resulted in extensive cuts to European aluminum capacity. Unfortunately, China’s return could see the crisis spread globally. That said, the spread may not trigger the further loss of global capacity.
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