While Germany’s Olaf Scholz was dragging his feet over tanks for Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland gained moral ground
And reports from Berlin indicate that, far from being apologetic about his dithering, Scholz believes that he has acquitted himself well. He kept his Social Democratic party united on a profoundly controversial question. He also persuaded the Americans to supply their tanks alongside Germany’s.
Conversely, if the anticipated Ukrainian offensive does better than Nato military planners anticipate, the question of the liberation of occupied Crimea – with the expected fleeing of hundreds of thousands of Russian settlers from the peninsula – will arise. And so would the risk that the Putin regime will resort to a nuclear escalation in order to stave off total humiliation and collapse.
Nor is there a serious appreciation in Berlin of how much Germany will need to adapt to the fundamental changes that have taken place in Europe because of the Ukraine carnage. Britain remains a critical player in European security, notwithstanding Brexit. Despite the absence of any formal security connection with the EU, its reputation, footprint and influence in the conduct of the Ukraine war are far more extensive than that of either France or Germany. And, conversely, no future stability and security for Ukraine are feasible without that country becoming – in substance, if not in form – a member of both the EU and Nato.
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