Analysis-Missile defence successes in Gulf, Ukraine fuel global urgency to acquire systems
- The success of ballistic missile defences facing their first complex, high-stakes combat scenarios in Israel, the Red Sea and Ukraine will encourage militaries globally to invest in the pricey systems, experts say - and intensify missile arms races.
"It's undeniable that any wealthy country with the technological wherewithal will continue to invest in missile defence," said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a defence and security think tank. "All of this is a recipe for a conventional arms race." But the impact may be most acute in Asia, where China has invested heavily in conventionally armed ballistic missiles. A 2023 Pentagon report said the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force has about 500 DF-26 missiles, designed to accurately strike targets thousands of kilometres away.
Interceptions can occur in the atmosphere or in space, and each domain requires different hardware. For instance, fins won't work outside the atmosphere - interceptors must have small steering rockets to function there. In its latest defence budget, South Korea increased funding by 12% for its Korea Air and Missile Defense System to expand it "from the existing lower-level defence concept," the country's defence ministry said in a statement.
But it also fields steerable warheads meant to hit ships at sea, including the DF-21D and variants of the DF-26, developed by the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. The effectiveness of missile defences on land and at sea will catch China's attention, said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China.
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