AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Idaho's state primary and Democratic presidential caucus

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Idaho's state primary and Democratic presidential caucus
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Idaho voters are heading to the polls to decide primaries for the U.S. House and the state legislature

When Idaho voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide primaries for the U.S. House and the state legislature, one contest will be noticeably absent from the ballot: the race for the White House. That’s because state lawmakers scrapped the presidential primary last year, prompting Idaho Democrats to hold presidential caucuses on May 23 instead. President Joe Biden faces only nominal opposition in the caucuses with less than three weeks remaining in the presidential primary calendar.

In Tuesday’s state primary, The Associated Press will provide vote coverage for the Republican primary in the 2nd Congressional District, as well as for numerous contested state Senate and state House primaries. The AP will also provide vote coverage for the May 23 Democratic presidential caucuses. The candidates on the ballot are Biden, Dean Phillips, Jason Palmer, Marianne Williamson and two others. There is no “uncommitted” or write-in option.

Idaho’s 23 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to the national party’s standard rules. Five at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are three PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s two congressional districts have a combined 15 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district.

Biden is the overwhelming favorite in the May 23 Democratic caucuses, as he has already clinched the nomination and faces no major challengers. The first indications that he is winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winner.

As of May 1, there were 1,001,426 registered voters in Idaho. Of those, about 59% were Republicans and about 13% were Democrats. In the 2022 primaries, turnout was about 28% of registered voters in the Republican primary and 3% in the Democratic primary. About 29% of Democratic primary voters and 14% of Republican primary voters cast ballots before primary day that year.

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