The probability of a 60 to 100-meter asteroid, 2024 YR4, striking Earth in 2032 has doubled to 2.3%, prompting global concern and a multi-pronged defense strategy.
The chances of a massive asteroid, ranging from 60 to 100 meters in width, colliding with Earth in 2032 have doubled. This asteroid, known as 2024 YR4 , is predicted to potentially strike our planet just before Christmas on December 22, 2032. Previously, the probability of it hitting Earth was estimated at around 1.3 percent, but that has now increased to approximately 2.3 percent, equivalent to roughly a one in 43 chance, as reported by the Independent.
Consequently, the asteroid has been assigned a three out of ten rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which evaluates the risk posed by asteroids to human civilization. A score of ten would signify a mass extinction event. This rating is the second highest ever recorded, surpassed only by the asteroid Apophis, which was initially given a level four rating in 2004. However, this was later downgraded after further observations revealed it wouldn't pose a threat for at least another hundred years.While this asteroid isn't large enough to trigger a mass extinction event like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, which had a diameter of 10 to 15 kilometers, it is still substantial enough to inflict catastrophic damage on a city-wide scale. The impact would be comparable to a 20-storey building crashing into the ground. Currently traveling at a speed of about 13.5 kilometers per second and located approximately 30,675,400 million miles away, the asteroid takes 4.05 years to complete an orbit around the sun, according to NASA's Eyes on Asteroid.In response to this threat, The International Asteroid Warning Network and The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group have initiated a global defense plan. These two UN-endorsed asteroid response groups are conducting further observations to refine the projected orbit of the asteroid and propose an intervention strategy. This could involve a planned collision with a spacecraft to divert the asteroid away from Earth, thereby neutralizing any potential danger - a method tested in NASA's Dart probe mission. Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, told The Associated Press: 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss. But it deserves attention.' Predicting the potential impact location of the asteroid is currently challenging due to its trajectory moving away from Earth in an almost straight line. Scientists will continue tracking the asteroid until it disappears from sight, re-emerging in 2028. The asteroid was initially detected by an automated telescope in Chile on December 27, 2024. The regions currently considered at risk span a vast area, extending from South America, across central Africa, and up towards India and South-East Asia, forming a 'risk corridor', as reported by the Independent. This could change as new data becomes available
ASTEROID COLLISION EARTH 2032 2024 YR4 NASA DEFENSE SPACE MISSION INTERNATIONAL ASTEROID WARNING NETWORK
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