ASX 200 LIVE: ASX to fall; US rate outlook turns more clouded

Australian shares are set to drop. Dow sheds 530 points on Kashkari rate cloud. Oil rises above $US90 a barrel. Follow updates here.

The US will release its March payrolls report at 11.30am AEDT. Here are what several economists are expecting: Goldman Sachs: “We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 240,000 in March—above consensus of +213,000. Our forecast reflects a continued boost from above-normal immigration, as new entrants to the labour force are matched to open positions. Big Data measures also generally indicate a solid or strong pace of job gains, and our layoff tracker indicates that the pace of layoffs remains low.

The hires rate—which refers to new hires as a share of existing employees—climbed to 2.4 per cent in February 2024, a return to just shy of its level in June 2023. “We are seeing a turning point in the data with the recent uptick in hiring – That said, employers are still hiring at a slower pace than during pre-pandemic times and the tight labour market of 2021 and 2022.” Santander’s Stephen Stanley: “For March, I expect payrolls to post a 215,000 advance.

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