Local shares are poised to gain; S&P 500 closes at 14-month high; $A lat 4-month high; BoJ to keep ultra-loose policy; ECB raises rate to 22-peak; US 10-year yield eases.
: “We had previously expected that the ECB would deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the July meeting. In light of the surprise upward revisions to the ECB’s inflation forecasts and its increased concern about the pace of wage growth we revise our forecast profile and see the ECB delivering 25bp hikes in July and September for a terminal rate of 4.0 per cent.
“Indeed we think the risks to our forecasts are still likely skewed to the upside with the risk that after a ‘skip’ in October the ECB opts for a further 25bp hike in December.”: “President Lagarde did not provide guidance beyond July and refrained from commenting on the terminal rate. This may be due to the Governing Council’s desire to show data-dependence, but it could also relate to divisions within the Governing Council over how to proceed past July.
“This is in contrast to the [Federal Reserve’s policy committee], who we now think hit its terminal rate in May, and will present an interesting dynamic over the coming months, with clear global divergence emerging between policy easing in China, a US Fed on pause, and continued tightening in the euro area.”
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