Australian shares are set to backtrack some of Friday’s advance. Michele Bullock’s term as RBA boss begins. Broad selling led the S&P 500 back below 4500.
Mining giant Rio Tinto has put its foot on vast tracts of land close to prized lithium assets in WA: Kathleen Valley and Mt Ida.AUD -0.1% to 64.32 US centsIn New York: BHP +0.1% Rio -0.3% Atlassian -3%Spot gold +0.7% to $US1923.91 at 4.59pm in New York10-year yields: US 4.33%, Australia 4.10%, Germany 2.67%The CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of a rate rise this week at 1 per cent. And the odds of an increase in November at 26.7 per cent. Both of those odds have narrowed the last several weeks.
“The point when the incoming data will convince the Fed to no longer see the need for further hikes. On that day, we expect multiple markets to reprice: long-term yields likely fall; interest rates across the board adjust as markets start to believe ‘cuts’ are possible; and, the 30-yr mortgage rates fall by 150bp or more, as the excess spread disappears.”
By October 1982, inflation had fallen to 5 per cent and long-run interest rates began to decline.
“As such, we hold to our current forecast for Brent crude to average $US80 a barrel in 2023, rising to $US83/bbl in 2024.”
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