ASX to rise, RBA policy meeting tops weekly agenda

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ASX to rise, RBA policy meeting tops weekly agenda
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Australian shares are set to open higher, taking direction from overseas. Techs fuel Wall Street rebound. $A resets lower. Oil set to take out $US85 barrel.

Sydney’s Pacific Equity Partners has been a money-making machine for 25 years. It lifts the lid on the firm’s culture, and how it is changing with the times.AUD -0.8% to 66.50 US centsIn New York: BHP -1.1% Rio -1.4% Atlassian +2.1%Spot gold +0.7% to $US1959.49/oz at 4.59pm in New York10-year yield: US 3.95% Australia 4.07% Germany 2.49%warns on US equities: “Near-term, an SP 500 4500-4620 range still looks important, and upside looks limited before SPX starts to turn lower to test 4500.

“My short-term call might have ‘jumped the gun’ a bit, but I do not expect that US Equities have much near-term upside, and should be on the verge of turning lower. In my experience, bearish engulfing patterns following a period of lacklustre breadth following a run-up normally extend lower. However, Friday’s recovery certainly might have postponed this by a few days.

“We anticipated firms would exceed the low bar. So far 55 per cent of reporting firms have beaten consensus estimates, above the historical average, and the aggregate year/year EPS decline of 7 per cent is tracking 200 bp better than feared. However, investors have not rewarded stocks posting positive surprises. On the day after releasing results, stocks beating consensus expectations underperformed by a greater amount than almost any time during the past 18 years.

writes on monetary policy, equities, commodities and currencies. He is the overnight markets editor and writes Before the Bell.

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