Just as the 1980s marked a turning point for the Australian economy, the past week represented a new era in Australian defence policy.
Defence Minister Richard Marles says the submarine program is being driven by “the biggest conventional military build-up that we have seen since the end of the Second World War” – a clear reference to China. “We need to respond to this,” he said this week. “A failure to do so would see us be condemned by history. As a trading island nation, so much harm can be done to us before ever setting foot upon our shores.
“Snorting” describes the process by which submarines rise to the surface of the ocean to expel contaminants, replenish their oxygen supplies and recharge batteries. Diesel-powered submarines like Australia’s current Collins-class vessels have to snort regularly to continue to operate. But rapid advances in technology are making even brief “snorts” highly risky.
No one disputes that the submarines represent a massive leap forward in technology. The question is whether they are a smart use of taxpayer money, how soon they will arrive and whether they make Australia more or less likely to be drawn into a possible war with China, its biggest trading partner. There’s a range of views among defence experts, but the reaction to the government’s submarine plan, unveiled on Tuesday, was generally positive. Michael Green, who served as special assistant on national security affairs to president George W. Bush, describes it as a “Goldilocks solution” that will benefit all three member nations and deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia faster than anticipated.
The Virginia-class vessels have been in service for two decades and are regarded as the pinnacle of submarine technology. Still, there is risk on multiple levels. American shipyards are currently operating at full capacity; even with billions of dollars in investment from Australia, there is no guarantee they can expand production to meet demand. The US Congress will have to pass amendments to its military export regulations to make the transfer happen.
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