We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 20 June, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing.
We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 20 June, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. Overall, we expect the MPC to stick to its current communication, priming the markets for a forthcoming start to a cutting cycle. We expect the first 25bp cut in August. We expect a muted market reaction but see the balance of risk skewed to a move higher in EUR/GBP as the BoE tends to err on the dovish side.
6% q/q , although the pickup is largely due to net exports with private consumption growth remaining more muted. Service inflation remained elevated at 5.9% in April with underlying momentum still strong and wage growth remains elevated underpinned by the recent rise in the National Living Wage.
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