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that BHP Group is trying to buy Anglo American Plc is highlighting a core disconnect at the heart of the industry: miners just aren’t building enough mines.
Production from existing mines is set to fall sharply in the coming years, and miners would need to spend more than $150 billion between 2025 and 2032 in order to fulfill the industry’s supply needs, according to CRU Group. Instead, the surge is being fueled by investors betting on looming shortages and the expectation that mining executives and their shareholders aren’t ready to finance and build enough new projects — and would rather buy out their rivals instead.
The world was more reliant on older mines with lower ore grades than in the past, she said. “On supply, there’s a true challenge.” Miners would need $12,000 copper to justify spending on new mines, according to Olivia Markham, who co-manages the BlackRock World Mining Fund. And even then their investors may be reluctant to fund them.
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