Pollster predicts uncertainty and potential instability in the upcoming Holyrood election.
The SNP and Labour are engaged in a blame game in the run-up to the 2026 Holyrood election amid growing unhappiness at the state of public services, the country's leading pollster has said. Professor John Curtice predicted neither party would want the risk of an early election if John Swinney fails to win support for his Government's Budget in the New Year.
A recent survey of voting intentions among Scots predicted the SNP could cling on to a majority at Holyrood in 2026 with help from the Greens. Curtice said support for the new Labour Government at Westminster had fallen 'remarkably quickly' and was denting the party's popularity in Scotland. But the Strathclyde University academic warned this would not automatically mean a rise in support for the Nationalists. Curtice said Swinney could enter 2025 with a 'degree of hope' - but added the First Minister should accept 'a lot of realism about the challenge ahead'. He warned the rise of Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform party had brought a degree of uncertainty over how the next government at Holyrood could be formed. Curtice said: 'The problem facing all the parties is, with Reform sitting at about 12 per cent or so, they could well make it very difficult for anyone to form a stable government. 'That is the prospect hanging over the parties. It's a problem for Labour, and it's a problem for the SNP.' The polling expert said there was a 'real risk' for Swinney the Nationalists could fall short of the 65 MSPs needed for a majority even with support from the Greens. But Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar faces a similar issue as his party could lack a majority even if it won backing from the Lib Dems and Conservatives. Sarwar has already declared his intention to form a minority government in 2026 that would work with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis. But he would first have to secure a majority of MSPs to vote him in as First Minister in order to take powe
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