Public spending for the next few years is judged all but unsustainable by independent observers, and Rachel Reeves has made her job harder by ruling out VAT changes.
The statement announcing the change of Labour's tax policy arrived at some point after 9pm on Wednesday night - hardly ideal optics for a change mid-campaign of something so consequential. The result - a potential future Labour government has just made its life markedly harder if it turns out money is tight, closing down options as part of a safety first campaign to avoid risk. It has been a long journey in a short time.
Although Labour is not thought to be planning a surprise rise in the headline rate, as former chancellor George Osborne performed on entering power in 2010, there are all sorts of tweaks to scope and allowances which might raise useful cash. But questions - and political pressure - grew, culminating in a Tory 'tax bomb' ad campaign, based on their opponents' failure to rule out VAT rises.
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