73 days to go 🗓️ PROGRESS REPORT: The UK is less likely to leave the EU with or without a deal on 31 October. There has been no progress on negotiations with the EU and opposition to no deal is hardening.
on 23 June 2016 and was due to leave on 29 March 2019 following two years of negotiations.
The Sunday Times fired an exocet missile straight into Downing Street yesterday publishing a government planning document painting a grim picture of life after no deal. Quoting an unnamed individual, the paper claimed the details were"likely, basic and reasonable". Not according to sources in Downing Street, who said it was a"worst case scenario" document and had been leaked by a former minister for political ends.
Again today, Mr Corbyn has insisted that he has the right to form a government before anyone else. But remember, even to get to this point requires the small issue of the current administration falling and a majority of MPs gathering behind another leader. Currently, it's not even guaranteed that Boris Johnson would lose a no confidence vote. And even if he did, the splits ravaging parliament make it almost certain that no other MP would be able to command the confidence of the house.
I've sat down all day indulging my first love - parliamentary number crunching - and as far as I can see a Corbyn administration could be short by over 30 votes or might just scrape in by one . The margin for error is almost non-existent and I suspect, as a result, is unlikely to succeed. A week ago Jeremy Corbyn wrote to the Cabinet Secretary, Mark Sedwill to ask whether it would fall within election rules for the government to carry out a no-deal Brexit if it should fall in the middle of an election campaign.
Aware of how lengthy negotiations over trade agreements can be, Mr Bolton has suggested a series of smaller, sectoral agreements to get things up and running, potentially as soon as November. Speaking after a meeting with Boris Johnson, Mr Bolton said the UK will be"first in line" for a trade deal and said the prime minister and Donald Trump have got their relationship off to a"roaring start", speaking five or six times by phone already.over the past 24 hours on the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with or without a deal on 31 October.
It is convenient that this apparently off-the-cuff revelation has come at a time when the government is consciously talking up the chance of no deal. But it's wrong to dismiss"Operation Kingfisher" as just posturing. Yet on precisely the same day, the government inadvertently adverted to the difficulty of just throwing money at this issue.
Pro-Remain MPs are also claiming that if the prime minister is defeated in a vote of confidence in parliament by opponents of no deal, but refused to quit and called an election, that could provoke a constitutional crisis. Respected academic and pollster Sir John Curtice claims it is now too late to leave on 31 October with a deal.After the past 24 hours, the UK is now more likely to leave the EU WITHOUT a deal on 31 October.
And, asked whether it was now too late for parliament to stop no deal, Mr Johnson's official spokesman said the prime minister's view remained unchanged."That is the UK will be leaving the EU on October 31, whatever the circumstances," he said."There are no ifs or buts."to leave the EU WITHOUT a deal on 31 October.So talking to Boris, at least it was like having a conversation, albeit a bit of a crazy one.
It will be made available immediately - and is part of a political operation in No 10, which is spending the summer putting itself in the best position it can for a possible election battle ahead as it tries to drive through no deal if necessary, an election surely more likely after the Brecon by-election.
A chink of light for Mr Johnson came in the form of the Brexit Party's result, which was not as good as some had expected, and the Labour Party's poor result.to leave the EU without a deal on 31 October.Lib Dems win by-election, reducing PM's working majority to one
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