Mathematicians break down the probability of the Chicago Blackhawks winning the NHL draft lottery two years in a row.
Macklin Celebrini of Boston University looks on during an NCAA Frozen Four game against Denver on April 11, 2024, in St Paul, Minn. Both were named to the team that begins competing Saturday in the IIHF World Championship in Prague.
Davidson College mathematics and computer science professor Tim Chartier, who wrote the book “Get in the Game:“So what does 1.5% mean?” he told the Tribune via email. “If the Blackhawks had exactly these odds year after year, in a century of NHL lotteries, they’d only have back-to-back No. 1 picks one or two times.
Kumagai added that in the world of statistics, any first-draw winner of the 16 eligible teams would amount to a “reasonable” outcome. “It’s not like you’re looking at someone having like a 1,000-to-1 shot going into the lottery or someone having a 90% chance of winning. From a probabilistic standpoint, looking at any one of these teams, it’s tough to say they stumped the odds, that anything would be shocking.”Florida Panthers: won in 2002 and 2003 .Orlando Magic: won in 1992 and 1993 .
In 2007 the Hawks won the lottery with 8.1% odds and selected Patrick Kane, a centerpiece of their Stanley Cup wins in 2010, 2013 and 2015.“The chance of back-to-back with those chances is 0.1%,” Chartier said. “That means in 1,000 years of the draft, it would happen only once.”
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