A conversation with Dr Comfort Ero, President of the International Crisis Group, on the potential for Donald Trump to influence peace in Ukraine and the implications of his policies for global security.
We spoke to Dr Comfort Ero, President of the International Crisis Group, and began by asking whether after a ceasefire was agreed in Gaza – could Donald Trump bring peace to Ukraine.He’s made it very clear that the US will not continue this endless support, that he wants to see some kind of negotiation. Putin has the upper hand, Ukraine appears to be outgunned but not collapsing as well.
So the question is, what would make Putin come to the table? And for Europe, I think, the key issue is the deterrence, the security guarantees for Ukraine at the same time.Comfort Ero: One of our trustees, Ivan Krastev, said don’t be a victim because Trump doesn’t like victims. He stamps all over them. So that’s one thing. I think the other issue is that Europe has tried to get itself ready, at least the European part of Nato, they’ve spent a lot of time on their defence industrial policy. But it’s also true that Europe itself is divided, as much as it tries to put forward a more united front. We need to be ready to transact with the US without giving up our values as well.There’s so many contradictions in what Trump says. He says he wants to end all wars, and yet then he says he wants to snatch the Panama Canal and Greenland. If you were a diplomat in Panama or Greenland now, what would you advise them to be saying to Trump?I think a number of messages, one of the messages that came out of Davos also was that avoid retaliation. Stay calm. Negotiate. Trump, in the end, wants to be seen as the winner. So it’s a win-lose situation. If you sell him a good deal, if you strike the right note with him, and if you don’t show yourself to be weak, I think that’s going to be important. Now, the worry, Cathy, Trump is not just pressuring his adversaries, he’s also pressuring allies. And this is an unusual moment for those who have traditionally relied on the US. Suddenly they find themselves on the back foot.Here’s another contradiction. He says he doesn’t want to wage war, and yet he’s prepared potentially to go to economic war with a trade war and is also throwing a wrecking ball into environmental agreements. How do you navigate these contradictions?There are a number of things that are predictable about Trump, and it was always on the tariffs and the trade. Now, if he was able to strike the deal that allows him to come home to the US and to the US public and say ‘I promised on one of my election campaigns and here’s what I got’, then that’s going to be a big win for him. And he always starts big. So the 60 per cent tariffs on China, that’s the starting point and then you start negotiating. The key issue for an organisation like mine, Cathy, is that can that be conflict reducing, can it lower the temperature on some other big files? The South China Sea, Taiwan, Asia geopolitics itself? Will it also help deal with some of the other critical issues around the Middle East and around Europe?You’ve worked to try and diffuse conflict around the world. Is the world a more dangerous place today with Trump once again in the White House, or not?It was dangerous before Trump came into power, and that was under a Democratic government. So I think we should also recognise that the world was precarious, accelerating in the wrong direction. But as I said, Trump is going to, as the art of dealmaking, Trump is going to start with a big decision on the table. So 60 per cent, Nato, wanting to see more burden sharing. One important point, Cathy, worth making is that Trump doesn’t want to go to war. He’s very clear that he wanted to end these forever wars. He doesn’t want to see American troops on the ground. So if he can negotiate all these very difficult geopolitical turbulences without having to see American boots on the ground, that would also be a win. He’s very risk averse to seeing a war. Whether there’s a miscalculation and whether he’s dragged into it, that’s a big, big question mark for all of us
DONALD TRUMP UKRAINE PEACE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS GLOBAL SECURITY TRADE WAR ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS
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