UBS survey also finds reserve managers expect higher US deficit under a Donald Trump presidency
Central bank reserve managers are growing increasingly concerned about “unsustainable” levels of government debt, which they believe could drive up borrowing costs in a bumper year for elections. A global survey by UBS found that 37 per cent of central bank managers said that the risks from global sovereign debt levels were among their main concerns for the global economy this year, an increase from 14 per cent who worried about this last year.
A quarter predicted the US’s annual inflation rate would be between 3 and 4 per cent by June next year — significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. US inflation was 3.3 per cent in May, down from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022, with traders in swaps markets betting the Fed will start lowering interest rates in September or November. “There isn’t yet any willingness among politicians to start dealing with the sustainability of public debt,” said Castelli.
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