Chile's state copper commission, Cochilco, maintains its forecast for an average copper price of US$4.25 per pound (lb) for both 2025 and 2026, citing a balance between constrained supply and growing demand driven by clean energy transition.
Chile 's state copper commission Cochilco anticipates an average copper price of US$4.25 per pound (lb) for both 2025 and 2026, aligning with its previous projections, as stated in its copper market trends report on Thursday. This projected price signifies an increase compared to Cochilco 's forecast for 2024, which was revised downward by $0.12 to $4.18/lb in September of the previous year.
Claudia Rodríguez, Cochilco's executive vice president, attributes these projections to a constrained supply and a surge in copper demand fueled by the development of clean energy and electricity networks. Furthermore, she acknowledges that geopolitical tensions, China's sluggish economic recovery, and the potential imposition of tariffs in the United States could exert downward pressure on copper prices. However, Rodríguez also points out that a robust performance of the global economy could conversely contribute to upward price pressure on copper in the near term. The Chilean copper commission anticipates copper demand to reach 27.4 million metric tons (Mt) this year, representing a 3.2% year-on-year growth. Supply is projected to increase by 2.3% to 27.3Mt, indicating a forecasted deficit of 118,000t. By 2026, copper demand is expected to climb to 28.29Mt, while supply is anticipated to reach 28.5Mt, resulting in a 210,000t surplus. Within Chile, Cochilco forecasts output of 5.76Mt this year and 5.97Mt in 2026, reflecting annual increases of 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively
Copper Price Forecast Demand Supply Cochilco Chile Clean Energy Geopolitics
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