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Cargo terminal for discharging coal cargos by shore cranes during foggy weather. Port Bayuquan, China. Stock image.
However, Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV said in its report that its findings indicate China’s coal consumption – the world’s biggest – will see a “minor uptick” in the next two years and then fall by one-third by 2040, ending up at around 25% of its peak in 2050. China approved another 114GW of coal power plants last year, up 10% from 2022, and the iron and steel sectors are on track to overtake power as the biggest consumers of coal by mid-century. Coal-to-chemicals will also make up a significant share of the remaining demand, according to the report.Decarbonization of the steel sector through new methods such as cleaner electric arc furnace technology is lagging in China, research has shown.
DNV forecasts China’s carbon emissions peaking by 2026, well before the official goal for climate-warming emissions to peak by 2030, but slower than a forecast by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air that emissions could go into “structural decline” in 2024.
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