China germanium and gallium ban could lead to $3.4B hole

USGS study analyses impact of complete Chinese ban on critical minerals

If Chinese officials were to implement a complete ban on germanium and gallium, as threatened, it could lead to a $3.4bn decrease in US GDP, according to a report released by the the United States Geological Survey this week.The USGS came to the conclusion after implementing a new model to assess how disruptions to critical mineral supply chains could affect the US economy.

"Economic losses to the US from decreased gallium and germanium imports would be concentrated in the semiconductor device manufacturing industry, which would account for more than 40% of the net loss," the report said.Additional losses would be spread across multiple industries including downstream producers dependent on semiconductors, it added.The new model found that gallium prices could rise more than 150% and germanium prices by 26% in the case of a total ban.

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