China is overwhelmed, yet an even bigger covid wave may be coming

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China is overwhelmed, yet an even bigger covid wave may be coming
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China has experienced no outbreak on anything like this scale since the pandemic began three years ago

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskIn the lobby, another family refuses to give up. “There are no beds at the moment, but let’s wait a bit,” says Mr Teng, who prefers that only his surname be used. He is trying to secure space for his father-in-law, who fell sick in late December and now has dangerously low levels of blood oxygen.

The outbreak is now spreading to smaller cities like Dezhou, which have fewer medical resources, and rural areas, which will struggle even more. Many doctors in the countryside have never treated covid patients before. Reports speak of queues forming outside village clinics, where many medical workers are also infected and drugs are lacking. On December 31st the government released a plan for tackling infections in the countryside.

State media also shy away from discussing whether China could have been better prepared for the lifting of covid-related restrictions, which happened just as the winter flu season was getting under way. By late November only 40% of those aged over 80 had received the three shots of vaccine required to protect them from severe disease or death. By December 21st the average number of doses being administered daily had risen to more than 3.

But trips abroad are likely to increase rapidly. For much of the past three years people in China have been deterred from travelling overseas by the difficulty of returning, and by Chinese officials’ efforts to dissuade them from leaving the country except for essential purposes. On January 8th the police are due to resume issuing passports to outbound tourists. Members of a cosmopolitan class of young, wealthy Chinese, long starved of opportunity for international travel, may seize the chance.

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