Xi Jinping appears to have personally played a part in reestablishing diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh. The question now is whether China will—or can—negotiate a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
was a risible mix of platitudes, such as “cease hostilities” and “improve humanitarian conditions” alongside the—by now obligatory—rebuke of the U.S. for its “Cold War mentality.” According to Maria Shagina, a senior fellow specializing in economic sanctions, standards, and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “China floated the peace plan for its own sake, rather than for some genuine mediation.
Still, negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia had been ongoing since 2021, chiefly in Iraq and Oman, though talks recently broke down. It was during Xi’s December visit to Riyadh, Tehran-based political journalist Saeed Azimifor the Stimson Center, that Saudi Arabia asked China to assume a mediator role—a suggestion that Xi and Iran both accepted.
Yet as deeply entrenched as the animosity is between Tehran and Riyadh, the fact that talks were ongoing sets the deal apart from Ukraine, where missile attacks and casualties mount daily. True, Beijing does have significant leverage over Moscow as Western sanctions have bitten. China’s trade with Russia hit alevel of $190 billion in 2022—a 30% year-on-year rise. Whether Xi is willing to use this to force Putin into a corner is a huge question.
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