Even if the Chinese state is unwilling to impose lockdowns while it prepares to open up, it can mitigate the number of deaths in three ways
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskMr Xi is not the first leader to conclude that such a fight was unwinnable. But before ditching their zero-covid policies, other countries first took pains to administer vaccines, stockpile antiviral drugs and draw up treatment guidelines. China had ample time to do all of that. Yet more than two years after the first vaccine proved effective, the country remains ill-prepared.
It should start by protecting the health system. A wave of covid is breaking over China. Our model sees this peaking in January. By that time hospitals risk being overwhelmed. Beds and staff are a precious resource to be husbanded. That means keeping people who are not seriously ill away from hospitals. To that end, the state could help drug companies restock pharmacies that run out of such things as lateral-flow tests and paracetamol.
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