China's recent export bans on antimony, gallium, and germanium have raised alarm bells in the US about its reliance on China for critical minerals. While domestic mining and recycling can help mitigate some risks, the US lacks reserves and production capacity for certain minerals like bismuth and tungsten, where China dominates global supply. The report urges the US government to increase stockpiles in the National Defense Stockpile and secure right-of-first refusal agreements with overseas producers to ensure a resilient supply chain.
Last week, China imposed export bans on antimony, gallium, and germaniumall of which are listed on China 's dual-use export control list. Other minerals on the list and, thus, at risk of future bans include aluminum, magnesium, and zinc, among others. Beyond their economic importance, many of these minerals have military applications. For example, tungsten superalloys are used in military turbines and armor-piercing munitions, while bismuth is used in ammunition and alloys for defense.
Having ROFR offtake agreements for existing production could immediately help fill supply gaps caused by adversarial export bans. The U.S. government should prioritize signing ROFR offtake agreements with firms operating in allied and partner countries, such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. The U.S. government should also prioritize inking agreements in countries least likely to face disruptions from a possible U.S.-China conflict in the western Pacific.
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