Column: Iron ore faces China fundamentals and sentiment hurdles

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from a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors in dominant importer China that are likely to persist over the short term.

On the fundamental side of the equation, there are signs that China’s strong appetite for imported iron ore the first two months of the year has moderated in March, and port inventories have swelled. Official customs data showed imports in the first two months of 2024 coming in at 209.45 million tons, up 8.1% from the same period in 2023, and giving a daily average of 3.49 million tons.

Iron ore in Singapore was still above $130 a ton on Feb. 16, and it is only since then that prices have moderated to the current level.Another reason for the decline in imports is that China’s port inventories have been rising strongly in recent weeks, and are back to what are comfortable levels for this time of year by historic standards.

There are fears Beijing isn’t doing enough to stimulate the sector, which has been beset by problems including liquidity issues at major developers and waning interest among buyers.

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