What is the R number, and why is it so important?
The reproduction number is not fixed. Instead, it changes as our behaviour changes, or as immunity develops.
Before any measures came in, the number was well above one and the conditions were ripe for a large outbreak. Successive restrictions brought it down, but it was not until full lockdown that it was driven below one.Counter-intuitively, this increase is probably due to the success in slowing the virus in society as a whole. As cases collapse in the community, the R value is largely reflecting what is happening in care homes.
Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC:"It's a big challenge making sure you're not loosening too much and increasing transmission." Unfortunately, there is no confirmation of how much each intervention affects the virus's spread, although there are estimates.
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