The battery and clean tech commodities will cumulatively fetch more than $40 billion while the value of thermal coal exports will be $30 billion by 2025.
Australia’s booming critical minerals sector is set to outgun the value of thermal coal exports within two years as global demand for clean energy commodities increases while fossil fuel prices dip towards pre-Ukraine war levels.
Meanwhile, the value of thermal coal exports will almost halve from $64 billion by the end of this year to $30 billion by 2025, according to the government figures, as prices for the fossil fuel used in power stations are projected to drop to levels traded before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The official projections show LNG export values continuing to fall, but not as much as the expected collapse in thermal coal values. As LNG prices ease from the high levels reached in 2022, the forecasts show a decline from $68 billion in 2023-4 to $60 billion by 2024-2025.
Meanwhile, exports of metals used heavily in the energy transition are expected to remain over $40 billion, having doubled since 2021-22.The lithium boom, as car manufacturers scramble to lock up supply agreements while they transition to making more electric vehicles, is proving a big plus for Australia, although the value of lithium exports is set to dip from $19 billion this year.
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