Get ready for what nearly all the experts think will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record thanks to unprecedented ocean heat and a brewing La Nina. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there’s an 85% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season that starts in June will be above average in storm activity.
FILE - Bob Givehchi, right, and his son Daniel, 8, Toronto residents visiting Miami for the first time, walk past debris and palm trees blowing in gusty winds, at Matheson Hammock Park in Coral Gables, Fla., Dec. 15, 2023. Nearly all the experts think 2024 will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. FILE - A home which came off its blocks sits partially submerged in a canal, in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., Friday, Sept. 1, 2023, two days after the passage of Hurricane Idalia.
“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. He said this forecast is the busiest that NOAA has seen for one of their May outlooks; the agency updates its forecasts each August. What people should be most concerned about is water because 90% of hurricane deaths are in water and they are preventable, Graham said.
This May, ocean heat in the main area where hurricanes develop has been as high as it usually is in mid-August. “That’s crazy,” McNoldy said. It’s both record warm on the ocean surface and at depths, which “is looking a little scary.” There’s the background of human-caused climate change that’s making water warmer in general, but not this much warmer, McNoldy said. He said other contributors may include an undersea volcano eruption in the South Pacific in 2022, which sent millions of tons of water vapor into the air to trap heat, and a reduction in sulfur in ship fuels. The latter meantgenerally is making the strongest hurricanes even more intense, making storms rain more and making them rapidly intensify more, McNoldy said.
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