Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

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Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
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Caution is sensible when so much is unknown

Increased transmission can arise from two factors. First, there is an intrinsic advantage, with a heightened “” R0; in a susceptible population, that is the average number of people each case infects, although after 20 months of pandemic this has become a notional concept. It was around 3 for the original wild-type virus, compared to around 6 for Delta and possibly rather more for Omicron.

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