President Joe Biden has narrowed the gap with former President Donald Trump, nearly tying but not overtaking the Republican in the polls. The latest RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump leading by 0.2 points, down from more than 4 at the beginning of the year.
polling average has Trump leading by 0.2 points, down from more than 4 at the beginning of the year. Trump led by 1 in the most recent. His national edge over Biden also improves when third-party candidates are factored into the equation. But those potential spoilers may be starting to fade.Biden may be starting to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, as Hillary Clinton failed to do in 2016.
The question that keeps Democrats awake at night is this: Should they be happy they are more or less tied with Trump, or is it actually a sign of weakness that their ticket cannot convincingly surpass him? By a similar point in 2020, Biden was leading by 5.5 points in theTrump outperformed his poll numbers in both of those elections. Some of the fissures in the Democratic coalition that helped him win the White House are resurfacing this year.of Trump’s term than Biden’s.
Whereas most Democrats look at Trump’s tumultuous tenure, capped by the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, the multiple indictments, and his subpar favorability ratings and channel the 1988sketch in which Michael Dukakis, as played by Jon Lovitz, says of George H.W. Bush, “I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.” Nevertheless, Trump is currently on trial and facing uncertainty in the courtroom. He is lagging Biden in the fundraising race while facing legal bills the incumbent does not. Trump’s ability to expand his coalition from 2020 may depend on activating low-propensity voters that Republicans have little experience turning out, while the nominee himself has traditionally been skeptical of the most proven means for doing so, blaming them for his loss four years ago.
The hope for Democrats would be that Biden’s modest uptick in the polls is just the beginning of a political recovery that will erase Trump’s lead entirely months out from the election. The fear will be that they have already hit Trump with everything —, indictments, claims he will cut entitlement programs if returned to office, contentions he will even end democracy itself — and can’t do better than a draw nationally, a bit worse in the battleground states.
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