The bilateral trade dispute between the US and China is entering a new round and is leading to renewed discussions about the deglobalisation of global trade in goods.
While it is true that the US and China have decoupled in terms of direct trade, the rest of the world has intensified its trade relationships. The bilateral trade dispute between the US and China is entering a new round after US President Biden announced higher tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act on Chinese imports worth $18 billion on 14 May, which are to come into force between 2024 and 2026.
And 2023 was not a pretty year for global trade in goods. Compared to the year before, trade in goods fell by 1.7%. But despite all the shifts and changes going on and countries intensifying national action plans, the facts do not tell a story of de-globalisation, but of ever-changing supply chains. Between 2018 and 2022, global goods trade grew on average by 2.3%, and if 2023 is included, by 1.7%. Global GDP grew by 2.4% in the period considered, e.g., only just slightly above trade growth.
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