There's been an obvious Under trend when Gavin Stone takes the hill for the Dodgers, and our MLB betting picks will ride the wave when he faces Framber Valdez and the Astros tonight.
There's been an obvious Under trend when Gavin Stone takes the hill for the Dodgers, and our MLB betting picks will ride the wave when he faces Framber Valdez and the Astros tonight.
The Central Arkansas product has excelled by limiting hard contact, ranking in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 89th percentile in barrel rate. While he’s not necessarily known as a strikeout pitcher, his 11.1% swinging strike rate and 31.8% chase rate are encouraging. lineup that performed well against RHP to start the year but has since fallen off. In 446 plate appearances since July 4, they rank 23rd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA against RHP. .
Houston is 20-26-3 O/U at home this season while LA is 22-28 O/U on the road. The Dodgers are 2-7 O/U in Stone’s last nine starts, and I’m betting on another Under coming through on Friday night. Valdez is striking out fewer batters than ever before. His 20.6% K-rate is a new career low, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2021. He ranks in just the 35th percentile in chase rate and there aren’t a ton of signs that he’s turning things around.
I mentioned earlier that Stone has posted some strong underlying numbers that imply future strikeout potential. Houston hasn’t been immune to strikeouts against RHP with a 22.6% K-rate since July 4, so I’ll bet on some of Stone’s swinging strikes turning into Ks.L.A. has come out hot from the All-Star break, winning six of their last seven games.
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