Get Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres predictions, picks, and odds for 5-11, plus MLB best bets and same-game parlay analysis.
James Paxton's solid surface numbers are a lie. The veteran lefty's velocity is down, he's walking everybody, and he has been exceptionally lucky when preventing runs. The Padres will make him pay today, running up the score against the Dodgers.
My Dodgers vs. Padres predictions expect big-time regression from L.A. starter James Paxton, whose underlying metrics are not encouraging, and I’m more than happy to scour the board and find the preferred method for fading Big Maple today. with starting pitching depth at a time when his ballclub is battling a ton of injuries at the position. His first year in L.A. has been a success thus far if you just look at the surface-level numbers as he’s amassed a 4-0 record with an impressive 3.06 ERA.
The veteran lefty has been unable to get batters to miss at his offerings, ranking in the 11th percentile in both whiff rate and chase rate . After posting a swinging strike rate above 12% for each of the last six seasons, that number’s down to an astonishingly low 7.9% in 2024. Simply put, his profile is alarming in several areas and he just doesn’t have it anymore. Paxton’s Stuff+ ranks 139th out of 143 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year. lineup for this matchup is they haven’t hit lefties well . Those concerns are put to rest when you consider Paxton has been running reverse splits for years. Since 2022, left-handed batters have posted a .290 BA against the vet, while right-handed batters lag with a .233 BA.
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