California’s consumer confidence about the future often falls into a funk in presidential election years.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the poll-powered results of the Conference Board’s index of statewide optimism, a benchmark that dates to 2007. To gauge political influences, the index average of the first five months of election years — 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 — was compared with the 13 years when control of the White House was not up for grabs. Presidential politics often makes people grumpy — no matter your candidate or their chances of victory.
California’s current conditions index in 2024’s first five months was the most upbeat about real-time finances of the five election years. It was also 33 percent above the average “now” scores in non-election years. However, this year’s expectations ran 11 percent below the non-election “future” as California’s 2024 outlook was the second-most pessimistic of the five election years. This pattern is no California quirk.
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