The war in Ukraine has prompted a need to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons from geopolitically dodgy sources. Yet ditching Russian gas creates a complex trade-off: “Get new gas, then go green” v “To go green means no new gas”
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskToday the screens show 28% of that flow coming from wind farms and 24% from solar panels. A decade ago the custodians of the grids which keep the rich world’s lights on would have told you this was impossible. Renewables were too troublesome, too hard to balance with demand moment by moment, too prone to fluctuations in the frequency of the current they provided.
Two decades ago the high price of emissions-free generating capacity made such a trajectory look both far-fetched and scary. Now it is seen by many as an opportunity. But it faces serious obstacles. This report looks at opportunities and obstacles alike. It also looks at the impact that the war in Ukraine is having on both.
Politically, not so much. The Russian invasion of Ukraine did not just send natural-gas prices soaring. It also opened up concerns about security of supply, and the strategic viability of a supply dominated by a powerful enemy. In 2021 theimported 45% of its natural gas from Russia; for Germany, Europe’s biggest gas consumer, the figure was 55% .
The issue is not unique to Europe. Similar concerns were raised when Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, announced that there would be a role for natural gas in a new $5.2bn “strategic reserve” of capacity designed to ensure that the state’s ambitious expansion of renewable power would not lead to blackouts.
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