Crafting an end game requires making space for Russia in Europe and revisiting how the post-Cold War expansion of NATO was managed.
This weekend Saudi Arabia hosts peace talks to try to resolve the violent stalemate in Ukraine.
Two immovable forces remain. Across much of the West, a morally charged, instinctive and emotional groupthink prevails, seeing in the struggle a September 1938 “Munich moment”. Worse, some call for the destruction of Russia, in a repeat of the punitive and ultimately fragile peace of annexation and indemnity imposed on Germany at the Paris peace conference in 1919. We know where that led.
At the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, Director Alexander Gabuev argues that “Putin is banking on the fact that the Russian manpower that can potentially be mobilised is three to four times bigger than Ukraine’s”.Any long-term strategy for Western support for Ukraine, he argues, must take into account this reality. As long as Putin maintains power he will throw the kitchen sink at turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state to stop it becoming part of NATO.
But any attempt to craft an end game in Ukraine has to create space for Russia in Europe. And that means dealing with the legacy of how the post-Cold War landscape was managed.
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